Copper Prices Surged by Over 2,500 yuan/mt, Shanghai Spot Copper Trading Remained Weak [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM September 25:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2510 contract were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 82,130 to 82,880 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper for the current month surged by over 2,500 yuan/mt. After briefly dipping to 82,160 yuan/mt during the morning trading session, prices continued to rise, reaching a peak of 82,950 yuan/mt, nearly breaking through the 83,000 yuan/mt mark. During the morning trading session, the intermonth spread contango ranged from 40 to 10, and the import loss for SHFE copper current month was approximately 1,000 yuan/mt.

With copper prices surging strongly, both buying and selling sentiment in the spot market were weak. Sellers, considering margin calls and the opening of the export window, which would promote export plans for domestic smelters, reduced suppliers' willingness to sell. During the day, downstream copper consumption enterprises saw almost no new orders, and pre-holiday stockpiling for the National Day also appeared weak. Transactions were supported mainly by just-in-time procurement. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 2.97, while the sales sentiment was 3.03.. In the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with weak transactions. Subsequently, transactions near a discount of 20 yuan/mt were first seen in the Changzhou area, after which the center dropped again to a discount of 40 yuan/mt. Non-registered brand prices also fell to a discount of over 100 yuan/mt.

Copper prices hit a new high for the year and are expected to be difficult to decline significantly in the short term, which is expected to significantly suppress downstream stockpiling sentiment. During the day, spot copper premiums and discounts in Shanghai did not decline significantly, and they are expected to continue trading around a small discount tomorrow.